Live beta predictions — shipping vertical
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Location-Specific Accuracy Scores (Beta Sample)
Verified Outcomes Log
Window Closed
Location
Opening Prob
Outcome
Brier Score
How it works
01 / INGEST
Live signal collection
Maritime news and vessel tracking data ingested from global sources where available. Each headline classified for severity, direction, and location relevance by our proprietary signal extraction engine.
02 / SCORE
Beta probability
Signals are weighted by severity, recency, and direction — then applied against researched domain base rates to produce a probability with an evidence-width indicator (not a calibrated confidence interval). Not a sentiment score. Scores are refreshed on a scheduled basis from processed evidence; the pipeline is in beta and freshness is shown per corridor.
03 / RESOLVE
Weekly outcome logging
Each weekly prediction has a defined opening and resolution timestamp. Outcomes are reviewed only after that observation window has closed — by a human analyst against persisted public evidence — and logged here. Brier scores accumulate into a permanent track record.
How outcomes are verified
Outcome verification. Each prediction has a predefined observation window. After that window closes, a human reviewer assesses persisted public evidence against the event definition. A prediction is scored TRUE or FALSE only when sufficient evidence supports the decision. If the evidence is insufficient or compromised, that prediction is excluded from the canonical accuracy record rather than being scored as a negative outcome. The criteria below guide the outcome determination.
01
Official closure or restriction
A port authority, canal authority, or coast guard issues a formal advisory, NOTAM, or closure notice affecting transit at the location.
02
Vessel diversion at scale
Three or more vessels publicly reroute away from the location, as reported by mainstream maritime news sources.
03
Incident causing 24h+ delay
A confirmed incident causes measurable delays of 24 or more hours, reported by at least two independent sources.
04
Insurance market response
War risk or cargo insurance premiums increase by 20% or more during the resolution window.
Verification sources
Lloyd's List
TradeWinds
Splash247
IMB Piracy
Port bulletins
Reuters / AP
BETA LIMITATION WARNING
The current accuracy dataset is in beta. Coverage is incomplete, historical methodologies are mixed, and the audit table is under active review. The recorded Brier scores must not be marketed or utilized as a validated all-system calibration measure.
Access the API
Disruption probability scores delivered via REST API as part of a tightly-scoped paid design-partner beta — integrate into your risk models, dashboards, or operational systems and shape the product with us during the programme.