Live predictions — shipping vertical
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Location-Specific Accuracy Scores (All-Time)
Verified Outcomes Log (Historical)
Window Closed
Location
Opening Prob
Outcome
Brier Score
How it works
01 / INGEST
Live signal collection
Maritime news and vessel tracking data continuously ingested from global sources. Each headline classified for severity, direction, and location relevance by our proprietary signal extraction engine.
02 / SCORE
Calibrated probability
Signals are weighted by severity, recency, and direction — then applied against researched domain base rates to produce a calibrated probability with a confidence band. Not a sentiment score. A number you can act on. Scored throughout the day as signals emerge.
03 / RESOLVE
Weekly outcome logging
Each Thursday, prediction windows close. Outcomes are verified against public news records by a human analyst and logged here immediately. Brier scores accumulate into a permanent track record.
How outcomes are verified
A prediction resolves TRUE if any of the following occurred during the resolution window. It resolves FALSE if none are met — regardless of news volume or probability score.
01
Official closure or restriction
A port authority, canal authority, or coast guard issues a formal advisory, NOTAM, or closure notice affecting transit at the location.
02
Vessel diversion at scale
Three or more vessels publicly reroute away from the location, as reported by mainstream maritime news sources.
03
Incident causing 24h+ delay
A confirmed incident causes measurable delays of 24 or more hours, reported by at least two independent sources.
04
Insurance market response
War risk or cargo insurance premiums increase by 20% or more during the resolution window.
Verification sources
Lloyd's List
TradeWinds
Splash247
IMB Piracy
Port bulletins
Reuters / AP
NOTE
Brier scores prior to 24 April 2026 were computed against the final probability at resolution time. From 24 April 2026 onward, all Brier scores use the
opening_probability — the prediction locked at the start of the week before events unfold. This is the correct methodology and is noted in the accuracy record for each resolved prediction.
Access the API
Real-time disruption probability scores delivered via REST API. Beta access is free — integrate into your risk models, dashboards, or operational systems in exchange for a monthly feedback call.