01 / Define
A precise future question
Each assessment is tied to a named corridor or port, a defined disruption condition and a future window. That keeps the output decision-relevant and testable.
The probability layer for maritime disruption
See disruption coming.
Clarisig turns maritime signals into explicit, time-bounded disruption probabilities — with the evidence, timestamp and forecast record attached.
Works with the maritime intelligence you already use. Clarisig complements vessel tracking, operational visibility and specialist maritime intelligence — adding an explicit probability layer rather than replacing your existing tools.
Current disruption assessmentsBETA · WEEK-AHEAD
Loading assessments…—
Locked forecasts · resolved against outcomesForecast record →
What the product actually does
Maritime data is abundant. The missing layer is an explicit, measurable probability.
Clarisig focuses on a small set of economically important disruption questions. It turns available evidence into a time-bounded forecast that can be inspected before the outcome and judged afterwards.
02 / Estimate
Probability with evidence attached
News, vessel-derived observations where available, weather and market context are synthesised into a beta probability signal. Evidence and timing remain inspectable rather than disappearing behind a generic risk index.
03 / Resolve
A prospective record
Forecasts are locked before their windows resolve. Outcomes are then recorded so customers can judge the system on actual forecast skill and useful lead time, not retrospective storytelling.
Designed to sit alongside your stack
Complement the intelligence you already trust.
Clarisig is not trying to become your vessel-tracking platform, operations system or all-purpose maritime data terminal. The initial job is narrower: turn signals from those worlds into an independent disruption probability you can compare, monitor and act on.
- Keep your existing vessel, port, news and operational intelligence.
- Add a comparable probability for the disruption questions that matter most.
- See what evidence moved the assessment and when.
- Use the portal or API to place the signal inside an existing workflow.
Existing layerOperational visibility, vessel behaviour, port conditions, news and specialist intelligence
Clarisig layerDefined disruption question → explicit probability → evidence → locked forecast → outcome
Your workflowRoute review, customer communication, contingency planning, analyst escalation or internal risk systems
Why a probability layer matters
The commercial test is not “is the number interesting?” It is “does it give you useful time to act?”
Clarisig is being evaluated on two dimensions at once: whether its forecasts outperform a frozen base-rate comparator over a prospective record, and whether material probability changes arrive early enough to improve a real decision.
Scientific signal
Forecast skill
Prospective Brier-based evaluation against a frozen base-rate or climatology comparator, with sample size and uncertainty shown.
Operational signal
Actionable lead time
How much useful time a meaningful probability change creates before conventional confirmation or the disruption itself.
Economic signal
Consequence value
Whether that earlier signal changes routing review, customer communication, analyst effort, escalation or another costly decision.
The forecast record is part of the product
Not a black-box rating you have to take on faith.
Every useful Clarisig forecast should be inspectable as a sequence: what was being predicted, what the probability was, when it was locked, what evidence supported it, how it moved and how the outcome resolved. The beta record is still being built; Clarisig does not claim statistically proven predictive skill or calibrated probabilities until the evidence gate is met.
Question
Defined disruption + named corridor + future window
Probability
Explicit beta probability or public qualitative band
Evidence
Traceable supporting signals and observation timing
Movement
How the assessment changed through the forecast window
Resolution
Recorded outcome for prospective evaluation
Initial customer wedge
Built first for teams making maritime decisions under uncertainty.
The founding cohort is intentionally narrow. The goal is to learn where an independent disruption probability creates enough decision value to become a paid recurring input.
Freight & logistics
Forwarders and operations-risk teams
Use a rising disruption probability to trigger earlier route review, contingency planning or customer communication without replacing the operational systems already in use.
Maritime advisory
Consultancies and brokers
Add a quantified, inspectable probability layer to analyst workflows and client conversations while keeping specialist judgement and source intelligence in place.
Cargo & specialist risk
Risk, commodity and insurance teams
Test whether a prospective disruption probability improves monitoring and escalation. Clarisig is not positioned as tradable alpha or underwriting-grade evidence at this stage.
Founding customer programme
Test whether the signal changes a real decision.
We are onboarding a small paid founding cohort. The engagement is deliberately practical: pick the disruption questions that matter, compare Clarisig with your current process, and measure whether probability changes create useful lead time. Exact probabilities and detailed evidence remain customer-gated; public pages expose qualitative assessments and the developing forecast record.